A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
